Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 6409 · AUS → LAX
departs 3:11 PM CT · arrives 4:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.