UA 1001 · LAX → AUS

departs 4:58 PM PT · arrives 10:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1001 · LAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?