Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1010 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1010 · DEN → TPA

departs 9:40 AM MT · arrives 3:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1010 · DEN → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?