UA 1017 · PHX → IAD

departs 2:02 PM MT · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1017 · PHX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?