UA 1036 · ORD → RSW

departs 8:57 AM CT · arrives 12:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1036 · ORD → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?