UA 1039 · AUA → EWR

departs 3:11 PM AST · arrives 8:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1039 · AUA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?