Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1098 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 1098 · LGA → ORD

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1098 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?