UA 1114 · IAH → SAN

took off 3:13 PM CT · expected to land 4:02 PM PT (scheduled 2:17 PM CT → 3:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

89% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
38%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1114 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?