UA 1117 · TPA → EWR

departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1117 · TPA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?