UA 1159 · ATL → IAD

departs 5:44 AM ET · arrives 7:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.17 in

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1159 · ATL → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?