UA 1169 · HNL → LAX

departs 9:40 PM HT · arrives 6:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1169 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?