Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1173 · SJU → EWR

departs 1:25 PM AT · arrives 5:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SJU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1173 · SJU → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?