UA 1178 · IAH → IAD

departs 2:59 PM CT · arrives 7:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.12 in

IAD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1178 · IAH → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?