UA 1179 · LGA → IAH

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 9:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1179 · LGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?