UA 1196 · CUN → ORD

departs 12:08 PM EST · arrives 3:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CUN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1196 · CUN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?