UA 1209 · ORD → EWR

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 12:53 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1209 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?