Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1286 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:13 AM PT, ETA 6:12 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 1286 · SFO → DTW

took off 11:13 AM PT · expected to land 6:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1286 · SFO → DTW

Odds over time