Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1310 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1310 · LGA → ORD

departs 10:15 AM ET · arrives 11:57 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.21 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1310 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?