UA 1409 · EWR → AUS

departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

88% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
12%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
47%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at EWR that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.14 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1409 · EWR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?