UA 1473 · SDQ → EWR

departs 3:18 PM AST · arrives 7:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1473 · SDQ → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?