Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1491 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1491 · MCI → ORD

departs 7:53 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCI that day

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1491 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?