UA 1506 · LAX → IAD

took off 4:55 PM PT · expected to land 12:14 AM ET (scheduled 4:43 PM PT → 12:58 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1506 · LAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?