Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?