Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1524 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1524 · ORF → IAD

departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↑ ORF is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.45 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1524 · ORF → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?