Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1527 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1527 · EWR → STL

departs 10:17 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1527 · EWR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?