UA 1557 · ORD → BWI

departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 8:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1557 · ORD → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?