Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1558 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1558 · EWR → SFO

departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1558 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?