Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1571 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1571 · IAH → MCO

departs 5:09 PM CT · arrives 8:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±8 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.11 in

MCO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1571 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?