Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1581 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

departs 7:58 AM CT · arrives 10:15 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

Odds over time