UA 1626 · MCO → EWR

departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at EWR that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1626 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?