Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1709 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1709 · BNA → IAD

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1709 · BNA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?