UA 1724 · KOA → SFO

departs 10:50 PM HT · arrives 7:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ This flight has been late 5% of the time recently

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1724 · KOA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?