Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1749 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?