UA 1779 · TPA → ORD

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1779 · TPA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?