Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1846 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1846 · DEN → SBP

departs 11:27 AM MT · arrives 1:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ SBP is prone to delays

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SBP that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1846 · DEN → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?