UA 1854 · GCM → IAH

departs 1:35 PM EST · arrives 4:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GCM

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GCM (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1854 · GCM → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?