Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

UA 1863 · SFO → SAN

departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1863 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?