Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1865 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 1865 · IAD → DEN

departs 10:13 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ 10am departures from IAD are usually not late

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.9 mi Precip0.29 in

DEN (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1865 · IAD → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?