UA 1938 · JAX → IAD

took off 12:58 PM ET · landed 2:19 PM ET (scheduled 12:37 PM ET → 2:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.22 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1938 · JAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?