UA 195 · MUC → SFO

took off 12:07 PM CEST · landed 2:20 PM PT (scheduled 11:42 AM CEST → 2:30 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MUC (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 195 · MUC → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?