UA 2040 · EWR → STL

departs 7:26 PM ET · arrives 9:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2040 · EWR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?