Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2112 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2112 · IAD → ORF

departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 9:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORF that day

↓ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.27 in

ORF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2112 · IAD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?