UA 21 · AMS → IAH

took off 11:19 AM CEST · expected to land 2:43 PM CT (scheduled 10:57 AM CEST → 3:21 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 21 · AMS → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?