Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2203 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:46 AM CT, ETA 11:28 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

UA 2203 · IAH → PHL

took off 7:46 AM CT · expected to land 11:28 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2203 · IAH → PHL

Odds over time