Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2235 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2235 · MSY → EWR

departs 7:39 PM CT · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.26 in

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2235 · MSY → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?