UA 2243 · SAT → ORD

departs 1:59 PM CT · arrives 4:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2243 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?