UA 2253 · IAD → MSY

departs 9:08 AM ET · arrives 11:04 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9am departures from IAD are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.10 in

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.83 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2253 · IAD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?