Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2293 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2293 · SEA → IAH

departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 6:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2293 · SEA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?