UA 2451 · IAH → MCO

departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts +23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.12 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2451 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?