Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2459 · STL → DEN

departs 9:06 AM CT · arrives 10:30 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2459 · STL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?